Forecasting and planning

No-one can really predict the future, but that does not mean quantitative forecasting models are without use or merit.

Often, the most useful aspect of a mathematical forecasting model is that it describes accurately known relationships between a number of business and economic parameters. It helps you to keep track of how a change in one variable will impact other variables that are important to your business, immediately or in the future. It enables you to compare the consequences of a number of different future scenarios. Even if you do not know which scenario will come to pass, you may identify desirable and undesirable futures, and take action accordingly.

Large organizations such as national governments and major oil companies are well-known users of complex and sophisticated forecasting models. But any company, small or large, can benefit from this approach. A model does not necessarily need to be complex to be useful, and many smaller organizations can benefit from simple, spreadsheet based models.

Novidec develops and implements forecasting models, for a range of application areas and with complexity and sophistication ranging from spreadsheet macros to stochastic simulation packages.

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